17, December 2021

ESA Open Invitation to Tender: 1-11064
Open Date: 16/12/2021 14:35 CEST
Closing Date: 31/01/2022 13:00 CEST

Specific re-entry safety requirements are applicable to all ESA missions, and those requirements are generally in line with similarframeworks world-wide to assess those risks. The methodologies to assess the risks critically depend on the modelling of the break-up of an object when it re-enters the Earth atmosphere under aerothermal and structural loads, and the determination where survivingfragment will impact. Such analyses are currently largely procedural, as the physical understanding of the break-up of large structures is limited at best.During the last decade, renewed focus on the risks posed by uncontrolled re-entries due to the changing nature of the space traffic has uncovered knowledge gaps in the physics underpinning the risk assessment procedures. In particularly forthe re-entry of large artificial structures such as the space stations and launch vehicles, thermo-mechanical coupling of heatingand forces play a role that is not well understood but has an observable impact. It is postulated that the early break-up sequence forsuch large objects have a significant impact of so-called secondary fragmentation events and hence the eventual casualty risk . In general, going beyond the postulation is hampered by the lack of data and dedicated interpretation thereof. Recent lower TRL workhasbeen undertaken to understand the impact of mechanical failure on the overall process, but it remains to be demonstrated what the overall impact could be and how to account for it at system engineering rather than design specific level.The objective of thisactivity is to develop a methodology used for re-entry safety assessments able to predict observable fragmentation debris created duringthe atmospheric re-entry of a large artificial objects. In order to reach this objective, the activity shall address the following core issues: I.Build an engineering model to described the fragmentation of large objects into smaller one during the early phases of an atmospheric re-entryII.Assess stochastically where the fragmentation events or large objects are likely to occur, based onthe new engineering model for fragmentation and established material ablation models.Validate the new engineering fragmentation model within the frame of a component-based break-up models in comparison to real observed events of large re-entering structures.NOTE: This activity is currently in the GSTP Work Plan but will only be implemented after confirmation of financial support from Delegations. The final list of participating states will be known at tender issue.

Directorate: Directorate of Operations
Estabilishment: ESOC
ECOS Required: No
Classified: No
Price Range: 200-500 KEURO
Authorised Contact Person: Sabine Roettger
Initiating Service: OPS-SD
IP Measure: N/A
Prog. Reference: E/0904-611 – GSTP Element 1 Dev
Tender Type: Open Competition
Open To Tenderers From: DE+FR+GB
Technology Keywords: 11-B-III-Reentry Risks
Products Keywords: 4-A-4-Other

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