29, May 2020

ESA Open Invitation to Tender AO10305
Open Date: 27/05/2020
Closing Date: 27/07/2020 13:00:00

Status: ISSUED
Reference Nr.: 20.112.09
Prog. Ref.: Technology Developme
Budget Ref.: E/0901-01 – Technology Developme
Tender Type: C
Price Range: 200-500 KEURO
Products: Ground Segment / Mission Operations / Other
Technology Domains: Space Debris / Modelling and Risk Analysis / Debris and Meteoroid Environment Models
Establishment: ESOC
Directorate: Directorate of Operations
Department: Space Safety Programme Office
Division: Space Debris Office
Contract Officer: Roettger, Sabine
Industrial Policy Measure: N/A – Not apply
Last Update Date: 27/05/2020
Update Reason: Tender issue

All missions in Earth-bound orbits rely on space debris and meteoroid flux models as these models are used to assess the mission risk and design shielding concepts. The flux predictions have been found to have a remarkable sizing effect, and hence are a potentialdriver for mission designs. Breakups are the major source of debris in the most frequently used orbital altitudes in LEO and for object sizes > 1mm. While in the past, explosion events were dominating, it is expected that collisions will occur more frequently with an increased spatial density in certain regions. Today, four traceable collision events have taken place on orbit, and anti-satellite tests can to a certain extend be considered a collisional break-up as well. Out of these, only one showed the expected characteristics of a modelled catastrophic collision break-up. The reasons for the mismatch of the other three could be manifold. It could be related to a lateral impact geometry, impact into appendices or other. A high-fidelity collision break-up model is required to understand the effect of these parameters. A correct description of such collisions is essential for more credible environmental projections, that drive mitigation standards. The objective of the activity is to develop a modernised statistical model characterisingcollision break-ups on orbit exploiting the recent advances in numerical simulation capabilities.

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